IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.9	#151
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#222
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.1	#168

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#139

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.5%	25.3%	14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	1.4%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.5	13.2	14.1

.500 or above	80.9%	88.9%	70.5%
.500 or above in Conference	89.2%	92.8%	84.4%
Conference Champion	24.9%	30.5%	17.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.4%	1.3%

First Four	0.9%	0.9%	1.0%
First Round	20.0%	24.8%	13.7%
Second Round	2.8%	3.7%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	1.0%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.8	0.2 - 1.9
Quad 2	0.5 - 1.5	0.7 - 3.4
Quad 3	2.9 - 3.1	3.6 - 6.5
Quad 4	13.4 - 3.5	17.0 - 10.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	138	Wright St.	L	68-69	57%
Nov 24, 2018	190	Missouri St.	W	69-67	69%
Nov 26, 2018	39	@ Alabama	L	65-75	13%
Dec 01, 2018	297	Prairie View	W	78-69	84%
Dec 08, 2018	157	@ Middle Tennessee	W	68-67	41%
Dec 12, 2018	104	@ Southern Illinois	L	67-70	29%
Dec 15, 2018	335	Jackson St.	W	70-57	91%
Dec 18, 2018	196	Evansville	W	66-63	70%
Dec 22, 2018	13	@ Auburn	L	69-83	8%
Jan 03, 2019	224	Morehead St.	W	73-68	74%
Jan 05, 2019	273	Eastern Kentucky	W	75-68	80%
Jan 10, 2019	285	@ Tennessee Martin	W	70-63	66%
Jan 12, 2019	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	78-69	71%
Jan 17, 2019	298	@ Eastern Illinois	W	71-62	68%
Jan 19, 2019	320	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	77-66	74%
Jan 24, 2019	109	Belmont	L	70-73	51%
Jan 26, 2019	259	Tennessee St.	W	68-61	79%
Jan 31, 2019	146	@ Jacksonville St.	L	67-68	39%
Feb 02, 2019	287	@ Tennessee Tech	W	74-66	65%
Feb 07, 2019	298	Eastern Illinois	W	71-62	83%
Feb 09, 2019	320	SIU Edwardsville	W	77-66	87%
Feb 14, 2019	188	@ Austin Peay	W	73-71	47%
Feb 16, 2019	273	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	75-68	64%
Feb 21, 2019	285	Tennessee Martin	W	70-63	80%
Feb 23, 2019	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	78-69	85%
Feb 28, 2019	224	@ Morehead St.	W	73-68	56%
Mar 02, 2019	188	Austin Peay	W	73-71	67%
Projected Record						17.0 - 10.0	12.4 - 5.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.3	3.6	6.6	6.8	4.8	1.6		24.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.6	6.0	6.7	4.5	1.2	0.2			21.7	2nd
3rd											0.4	3.1	5.7	5.1	2.0	0.2					16.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.5	4.8	3.4	0.9	0.1	0.0					12.0	4th
5th									0.2	1.9	3.3	2.2	0.4	0.0							8.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.4	2.7	1.5	0.3	0.0								6.0	6th
7th							0.1	0.5	1.8	1.2	0.2	0.0									3.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	1.2	0.9	0.2											2.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0											1.9	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.4	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.3	1.7	2.6	4.5	6.3	8.0	10.9	12.4	13.3	12.4	11.3	7.9	4.9	1.6			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
17-1	96.5%	4.8		4.3	0.5
16-2	85.1%	6.8		5.1	1.6	0.1
15-3	58.4%	6.6		3.9	2.3	0.4	0.0
14-4	28.8%	3.6		1.3	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.8%	1.3		0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.5%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	24.9%	24.9		16.4	6.7	1.6	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.6%		80.8%	71.7%	9.1%	9.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.0			0.3		32.2%
17-1	4.9%		55.9%	49.7%	6.3%	12.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.1		2.2		12.4%
16-2	7.9%		47.4%	45.6%	1.8%	13.0										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	1.4	0.9	0.2	0.0	4.2		3.4%
15-3	11.3%		32.9%	32.5%	0.4%	13.6											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.4	0.6	0.0	7.6		0.5%
14-4	12.4%		24.2%	24.2%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.1	9.4
13-5	13.3%		19.2%	19.2%		14.6												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.4	10.8
12-6	12.4%		13.3%	13.3%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.4	10.8
11-7	10.9%		9.7%	9.7%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	9.8
10-8	8.0%		4.3%	4.3%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.2	7.6
9-9	6.3%		2.4%	2.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.2
8-10	4.5%		3.7%	3.7%		15.9																0.0	0.2	4.4
7-11	2.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
6-12	1.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
5-13	1.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
4-14	0.4%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.5%	19.9%	0.6%	13.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	1.0	2.5	4.6	5.1	4.4	1.9	79.5		0.8%